#956 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line. The Dodgers are off a loss but this followed having won 17 of 21 games and 20 of last 22 wins have been by 2+ runs. LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 29 wins this season! The Dodgers have averaged 5.3 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors! The Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they are hitting only .218 on the season! Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .462 and batting average of .262 to lead the majors so far this season! HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Reds have a mediocre bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers. Also, LA is starting Tyler Glasnow and he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season. The Reds are starting Brent Suter here but he is more of an opener and Nick Martinez is likely to get most of the work since Nick Lodolo was put on the DL. Martinez has a 4.86 ERA this season and has been quite hittable! Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -155 range with the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off a loss. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs! Lay it!

ASA WNBA free play on UNDER 168.5 – NY Liberty at Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This number opened significantly higher than it is right now, but there is still enough value for a small Under wager. The Liberty were 5th in pace of play a season ago, the Fever were 11th or second slowest. New York had the 3rd best overall defensive Net rating in 2023 at 99.4. Indiana was 11th at 106.3. The league average for Total points scored per game in the WNBA as season ago was 164PPG. They attempted 68.3 field goals per game. In New York’s opening game at Washington the other night they attempted 68 field goals, making 32 for 47%. Those numbers are very similar to last season's averages of 46% shooting and 69.9 field goal attempts p/game. NY and Washington finished with 165 total points. The Fever played Connecticut in their season opener and the two teams produced 163 Total points. Both teams shot 48% for the game but Indiana only attempted 50 field goals. Last season the Fever attempted 68.3 field goals per game and hit just 44.2%. Games involving the Liberty last season averaged 169.8PPG. When Indiana was involved in a game those contests averaged 166.1PPG. We will side with the UNDER in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets ML +115 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - When will the NBA be forced by legal sports betting to start disclosing injury news sooner? In Game 4 it was obviously a shock to everyone when Mike Conley didn’t play for the Wolves. His absence was key in the Wolves loss and it showed in the 2nd quarter when Minnesota turned it over 9 times. The Nuggets have made some great adjustments since the first two games and employed a double-team defensive scheme in Game 4 on Anthony Edwards. Denver simply told the Wolves that someone other than ANT needed to beat them and nobody on the T’Wolves roster responded. Consider this, the Nuggets had an offensive Net rating in the regular season of 119.1 which was 4th best in the league. The Wolves had one of the best defensive Net ratings at 109.9. In the last three games the Nuggets offensive Net rating is 121.4. Overshadowed by the Jokic/Nuggets offense has been solid defensive play that has held the Wolves to 90, 107 and 97 points in the past three games and has a defensive Net rating of 95.7. Anthony Edwards is incredible but even he can’t carry the entire scoring load for the Wolves and Karl Anthony Towns just doesn’t show up in big moments. It’s really hard to beat a team 4 times in a row but we expect Denver to end the series tonight.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -7 vs Indiana Fever, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Liberty and fade an over-valued Fever team with rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark. Clark and the Fever lost their opener against Connecticut (we were on the Suns in that game too) in blowout fashion 71-92. The Fever attempted only 50 field goals in the game compared to 66 for the Sun and they turned it over 25 times. New York is coming off a 5-point win at Washington but didn’t play well as they were favored by -11.5 and needed some 4th quarter magic from Laney-Hamilton to pull out the victory. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 6-14 SU at home, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition, but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Liberty allowed the fourth fewest PPG in the WNBA at 80.6PPG and had the 3rd best defensive Net rating. NY had the 2nd best Net rating in the WNBA at +10.3, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Liberty were one of only 4 teams in the league a year ago that had a positive scoring differential. New York’s average Margin of Victory was 2nd in the league at +8.6PPG and they won 17 of 20 road games. NY beat this Indiana team 4 times last season, all by 8+ points, 3 by double-digits. We like the Liberty big in this one.