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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 11, 2024
Mets vs Braves
OVER 9½ +100 Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Mets/Braves OVER 9.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team with a suspect rotation with the loss of Spencer Strider to a season-ending injury and one of the best lineups in baseball.  The Braves are hitting .309 and scoring 6.9 runs per game this season while going 7-2-1 OVER in their 10 games this season.

The New York Mets have come to life at the plate on the road scoring 22 runs in their last four games for an average of 5.5 runs per game.  They will do their part in helping contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket.

Jose Quintana is far past his prime and will get rocked tonight.  He allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 1/3 innings in his final start against the Braves last season.  Allan Winans is only getting this start due to the Strider injury.  Winans is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 32 1/3 innings in the big leagues while allowing 19 earned runs and 5 homers in the process.

The Mets and Braves have combined for 15 and 11 runs in the first two games in this series and it will be more of the same in Game 3 today.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 11, 2024
Knicks vs Celtics
Knicks
-2½ -110 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 11, 2024
Pelicans vs Kings
Pelicans
+1 -110 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 11, 2024
Astros vs Royals
Royals
+123 at BetVegas
Won
$123
Play Type: Premium

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +123

This is a classic case of the wrong team being favored.  The Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 8-4 this season and scoring 4.9 runs per game.  They are 7-2 at home and scoring 5.3 runs per game.

The Houston Astros are 4-9 this season and scoring just 4.0 runs per game.  The Astros are 2-4 on the road and scoring 3.7 runs per game.  Not only has this Kansas City offense been better, but I think the Royals have a big advantage on the mound today.

Hunter Brown went 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 29 starts last season.  Brown has been terrible to start 2024, allowing 5 earned runs and 18 base runners in 7 innings for a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP through two starts.  Brown allowed 6 earned runs and 4 homers in 3 innings in his lone career start against the Royals last season.

Brady Singer is off to a tremendous start for the Royals this season.  He is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.525 WHIP in two starts, allowing just on earned run and 7 base runners in 13 1/3 innings with 14 K's.  The Royals are 5-0 in their last five meetings and 7-1 in their last eight meetings with the Astros with all seven wins as underdogs.  Wrong team favored again.  Bet the Royals Thursday.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 12, 2024
Raptors vs Heat
Raptors
+15 -110 at Ace
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 12, 2024
Hawks vs Wolves
Wolves
-12½ -110 at Ace
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 12, 2024
Hornets vs Celtics
Hornets
+10½ -110 at Ace
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Reds vs White Sox
OVER 9 -115 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* Interleague Friday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/White Sox OVER 9

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 50's with 20 MPH winds blowing out to center at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Chris Flexen is 27-36 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven seasons in the big leagues.  He went 2-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last season, and he is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings.  Flexen allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.  The Reds may cover this OVER on their own off Flexen.

Despite some injuries in their lineup, the White Sox have managed to score 6 and 7 runs in their last two games against the Guardians coming into this one.  I think they'll do enough at the plate against Andrew Abbott and this rough Cincinnati bullpen to contribute to us cashing this OVER.  

The OVER is 4-1 in Reds last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Reds vs White Sox
Reds
-1½ -109 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-109)

The Chicago White Sox are a mess.  They are 2-10 this season and scoring just 2.4 runs per game.  They are without three of their best hitters right now to boot due to injury in Robert Jr., Jimenez and Moncada.

The Cincinnati Reds will be highly motivated for a victory coming off two consecutive losses.  The Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they have a big advantage on the mound over the White Sox today.

Andrew Abbott is 8-7 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 23 career starts for the Reds.  He'll be opposed by Chris Flexen, who is 27-36 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in seven seasons in the big leagues.  He went 2-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP last season, and he is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 2/3 innings. Flexen allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 14-4 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.

The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 20 MPH tonight in Chicago which will aid the Reds in scoring runs and winning this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Reds on the Run Line Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Royals vs Mets
Royals
+112 at linepros
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +112

This is a classic case of the wrong team being favored.  The Kansas City Royals are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 9-4 this season and scoring 5.5 runs per game.  They just put up 13 and 11 runs in back-to-back wins over the Astros and have now won seven consecutive games.

They will make it 8 in a row against the Mets, who are 5-7 this season.  The Royals have a big advantage on the mound today with Michael Wacha over Luis Severino.  Wacha went 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts in 2022 for the Red Sox and 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 2023 for the Padres.  It has been more of the same for the Royals as Wacha is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in two starts this season.

Luis Severino went 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 18 starts for the Yankees last season.  Severino is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in two starts this season.  Severino has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against Kansas City.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Royals Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Royals vs Mets
OVER 8 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* Royals/Mets Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the upper-50's with 22 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at Citi Field in New York tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Royals are hot at the plate scoring 13 and 11 runs in their last two games coming in.  The Mets are hot as well scoring a total of 29 runs in their three games at Atlanta last series.  Both teams should stay hot at the dish today with the favorable forecast for hitters.

Michael Wache has been solid the last two years but he did get roughed up by the Orioles before shutting down the lowly White Sox.  Luis Severino has not been sharp allowing 8 runs, 4 earned, and 16 base runners in 10 innings this season.  Severino has allowed 12 earned runs and 25 base runners in 15 innings in his last three starts against Kansas City.  Wacha has allowed 10 earned runs and 21 base runners in 14 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Brewers vs Orioles
OVER 8 +100 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Brewers/Orioles OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 21 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Baltimore tonight.  The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a much better offensive team than they get credit for.  They are hitting .275 and scoring 5.9 runs per game this season, including .290 and 6.3 runs per game on the road.  They have now scored 12, 8, 9 and 7 runs in their last four games coming in, and the OVER is 6-1 in Brewers last seven games overall.

The Baltimore Orioles are scoring 5.8 runs per game this season.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and it's only going to keep getting better as they call up guys throughout the season.  They have scored 9, 7 and 7 runs in their last three games overall.

Tyler Wells has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last five starts.  Freddy Peralta has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three of his last four.  I expect both teams to score 4-plus runs tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Padres vs Dodgers
OVER 8 -112
Play Type: Top Premium

20* Padres/Dodgers NL West Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 13 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Los Angeles tonight. The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

The Dodgers are hitting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game this season, including .304 and 6.5 runs per game at home.  The Padres are hitting .257 and scoring 5.3 runs per game this season, including .277 and 5.7 runs per game on the road.  This total of 8 is simply too low for a game involving the Padres and Dodgers' potent lineups.

Michael Kings has already allowed 11 walks in 14 2/3 innings this season for the Padres and has control issues.  The Padres already rocked Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his first start this season where he allowed 5 earned runs in one inning of a 15-11 loss to San Diego.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with 10 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Braves vs Marlins
OVER 8½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

15* NL Friday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team with a suspect rotation with the loss of Spencer Strider to a season-ending injury and one of the best lineups in baseball.  The Braves are hitting .303 and scoring 6.6 runs per game this season while going 8-2-1 OVER in their 11 games this season.

The Miami Marlins are allowing 5.9 runs per game and the Braves at likely to hang a big number on them.  But the Marlins did put up 5 runs against the Yankees in their last game and I expect them to have some success at the plate tonight as well.

Max Fried has been dreadful this season.  He went 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in four spring training starts, and it has carried over into the regular season.  Fried has posted an 18.00 ear and 3.20 WHIP in two starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 16 base runners in 5 innings.

Trevor Rogers has bene awful the last three years.  He went 4-11 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 23 starts in 2022.  He only made four starts in 2023 with a 4.00 ERA.  He is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 innings.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Braves and Marlins with 9 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games.  The last three meetings in Miami saw 18, 16 and 15 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Pirates vs Phillies
OVER 9 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Phillies OVER 9

The wind is blowing out in almost every MLB game today.  That's a big reason for my high volume of MLB OVERS on Friday, and it applies to this game as well.  The forecast is calling for temps in the 60's with 18 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Philadelphia tonight. The wind will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Bailey Falter is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 10-14 with a 4.80 ERA in his career in the big leagues.  He went 2-9 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season, and he is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this season while allowing 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings.

Cristopher Sanchez is 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA in his career in the big leagues.  He is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Falter's last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 12, 2024
Suns vs Kings
Suns
-4½ -110 at Mirage
Play Type: Top Premium

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

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