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Freddy Wills Freddy Wills
#4 Overall Football Handicapper on the Sportscapping Network! NFL Max Top Plays on a 71-35 run since 2015 - 201-149 long term, and on a 182-131 (58% run in the NFL)!
ALL SPORTS SUBSCRIPTIONS
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NCAA-F SUBSCRIPTIONS
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NFL SUBSCRIPTIONS
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Florida Atlantic vs Air Force
OVER 54 -109 Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

FAU/AirForce O54 2.2% 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Missouri vs Boston College
Missouri
-109 at pinnacle
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

Missouri -115 2.5 %play 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
UCLA vs Stanford
OVER 58½ -108 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

UCLA/Stanford O58.5 1.1% PLAY

Stanford is without 3 RB’s, and I think they’ll be forced to look to pass at least on first down, and I think that’s the way attack UCLA, who has been stout against the run this year ranking 8th in EPA/run defense,  Stanford seemed to have found something with Tanner McKee at QB as he has passed for 570 yards 5TD and 0INT’s.  On the flip side Stanford’s defense has given up 200+ yard rushing to everyone this season and rank 114th in EPA/run defense.  UCLA will be able to run the ball especially if Vanderbilt of all teams just ran for more than 200 yards on Stanford.  So favorable match up for UCLA’s offense.  David Shaw has faced Chip Kelly 5 times as a head coach, and the average score of those games was 72.4 ppg with only one game with less than 60 points.  He’s also 3-2.  I expect a high scoring game here

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
New Mexico vs UTEP
New Mexico
-1 -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

New Mexico -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think the wrong team is favored here and New Mexico may go off as a favorite.  They are 0-3 ATS, and that automatically gives us value, but they are a team that just got shutout by Texas A&M and now face a UTEP team off a bye.  Both teams played New Mexico State, and while on paper it looks like UTEP is the better team, New Mexico played a more complete game. 

New Mexico will have the best player on the field in Terry Wilson at QB, the transfer from Kentucky, and he should be much more comfortable than he was a week ago at A&M.  Wilson has been solid this year 5td / 1 int, and goes up against a pass defense that has just 8 INT’s in the last 3 seasons.  In fact UTEP has been negative TO margin 6 straight seasons and are already -5 this year, while New Mexico is +4. 

UTEP also has a run heavy rushing offense, while New Mexico is only allowing 85 yards rushing per game, and really played well against A&M’s offense holding them in the red zone to FG’s in 2 of their 4 trips.  I think Terry Wilson gets comfortable and dominates this game.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Nebraska vs Michigan State
Nebraska
+5 -107 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Nebraska +5 3.3% PLAY

Michigan State just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and they host Nebraska at night who is desparate for a big time win.  Nebraska has played extremely well since losing to Illinois to start the season and was in that game against Oklahoma last week on the road.  I like that Nebraska got to play on the road in a hostile environment and use that to their advantage for this upcoming week. 

Michigan State’s weakness has been Nebraska’s strength.  Nebraska ranks 21st in EPA/pass, and 52% in passing success rate, and they are only getting healthier at WR.  Martinez has done a 180 since that Illinois game, and it seems like he’s playing with a different level of confidence.  This Michigan State secondary ranks 83rd in EPA/pass defense and gave up 6 explosive passing play to Northwestern of all offenses.  Nebraska has the added dimension of Martinez being a threat to run, and that should open up for some explosive plays in this game for this Nebraska offense.

Just 28% of the tickets on Nebraska here, but I think they are a live dog and can pull an upset

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Kent State vs Maryland
Kent State
+14½ -110 at linepros
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Kent State +14.5 3.3% play

I almost go to the window with Kent State last week, but wanted a +24, that never came.  They lost at Iowa 30-7, but it was 16-7 at the half, and Kent State had a 1st and goal in the 3rd quarter to cust the game to 16-14 and they fumbled.  They were also down 10-3 in week 1 at Texas A&M, so playing on the road against Maryland is not going to phase this team.  Iowa and Texas A&M have top 10 coaches, and while Maryland is 3-0, I just don’t think they are as well coached to pull away from a solid MAC team, when they have Iowa coming to town next.

Maryland’s defense is also not nearly as good as A&M or Iowa, and they certainly don’t have the home field advantage that those two teams have so I expect Kent State to get the offense going here a bit.  Maryland ranks 37th in YPP allowed, but the offenses they have faced are Illinois ranking 92nd, West Virginia ranking 61st, and Howard.  Kent State defensively have some ball hawking corners, and are +7 in TO margin so far this season.  I could see Kent State sticking around, and Maryland looking ahead to a massive game against Iowa thinking they’ll be 4-0.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin
Wisconsin
-6 -110 at SC Consensus
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Wisconsin -6.5 3.3% play

We have the #12 team against the #18 team, and the #18 team is 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field (Soldier Field).  We have just 30% of the tickets on Wisconsin but the money is about even, and the line which opened up at 5.5 is out to 6.5.

Notre Dame has not played well this season despite their 3-0 record. I have major questions on the offensive line, as they have already given up 14 sacks, and while Wisconsin doesn’t sack the QB they have 28 total pressures in 2 games.  Of course the story here is Jack Coan, at QB for Notre Dame who came from Wisconsin, and I think the advantage lies on the side of Wisconsin’s defense and Jim Leonard the DC who has had plenty of time to go back and look at Jack Coan’s tape, during their bye week.  Coan is not helped at all by the running game that is averaging just 2.9ypc.

At the end of the day I’m backing the team that is better running the ball, and defending the run.  Wisconsin ranks 44th in EPA/run, and 2nd in EPA/run defense while Notre Dame is 121st in EPA/run offense, and 78th in EPA/run defense.  Wisconsin has clearly played a tougher opponent in Penn State, and that loss looks better given how Penn St has looked so far, and Wisconsin really should have won that game, but had 4 opportunities in side Penn State’s 25 yard line and had 0 points.  They’ll have to change that this week, and if they can avoid costly turnovers I believe they win this game by double digits.   

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
UTSA vs Memphis
UTSA
+145 at SC Consensus
Won
$145
Play Type: Premium

UTSA +135 3% PLAY

I gave out Memphis +140 last week, and while it turned out a winner, I am not naïve to think that was not complete luck.  Memphis got outgained by 222 yards, and relied on a 49 yard fumble return, and a 94 yard punt return TD that was very controversial and they still nearly lost this game.  UTSA on the other hand sits at 3-0, and they just beat MTSU 27-13, but that game was not even close as UTSA had a 253 yard edge including 175-8 on the ground.  123 of MTSU’s yards came in garbage time as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes of the game.

UTSA ranks 14th in EPA/play margin, and have impressive win at Illinois under their belt so going to play at Memphis should not phase this team that is really balanced all over the field ranking top 50 in a lot of offensive and defensive metrics.  I think Frank Harris at QB can have a big day with his feet and arm as Memphis defense looks lost sometimes.  This is a team that gave up 50 points to Arkansas State the week before, and looked a bit better against Miss State due to the familiarity of the coaching staff and that offense.  Memphis defense has not been tested on the ground and I think they will be here.  Meanwhile UTSA has been stout against the run, and are allowing just 48.8% completion percentage.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Washington State vs Utah
UNDER 55 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Wash St / Utah Under 54.5 2.2% play

utah’s defense holds sd st to 248 yards but give up 33pts

utah’s offense has struggled, and their defense has been dominant, but the last two games they hav eplaye dthey have given up 26 and 33 points.  now they lose their qb charlie brewer who simply leaves the team and quits.  nobody likes a quitter.  utah had 14 drives, and just a 28.6% drive success rate.  They wer enegative in epa/pass and epa/rush.  tHIS WEEK THEY FACE WASHINGTON ST WHO JUST GOT CLOBERED BY USC 45-14, AND ON THE SURFACE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A HIGH SCORING GAME, BUT I JUST DON’T SEE IT THAT WAY. I THINK WHITTINGHAM SIMPLIFIES THE OFFENSE WITH BREWER GONE AND RELIES ON HIS DEFENSE.  WASH ST AGAINST USC WAS NOT VERY SUCCESSFUL, AND THEIR DEFENSE SPECIFICALLY THEIR RUN DEFENSE HAS BEEN THE STRENGHT OF THE UNIT. I THINK THIS GOES UNDER THE TOTAL 54.5.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Ravens vs Lions
Lions
+7½ -107 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Lions +7.5 1.1% play 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Colts vs Titans
Colts
+5½ -110 at SC Consensus
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Colts +5.5 3.3% play 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Washington Football Team vs Bills
Washington Football Team
+7½ -114 at pinnacle
Lost
$114.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Washington +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Dolphins vs Raiders
Dolphins
+4 -110 at SC Consensus
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Dolphins +4 3.3% play / 1% on Dolphins +170

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Bucs vs Rams
OVER 55 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Over 55 3.3% play 

SERVICE BIO

Season Awards: This network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   

My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic.

Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 5 years. In 2008 I started my own service and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks.

Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's).

My Motto: "The will to win is nothing without the will to prepare."