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Kyle Hunter Kyle Hunter
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Colorado vs Arizona State
UNDER 45 -107 Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Free

*3 Star Free Pick* The Colorado Buffaloes have a major weakness at quarterback in Lewis. You can tell the coaching staff doesn't have any faith in him, and you can't blame them. He has happy feet in the pocket and doesn't look to throw the ball downfield hardly at all. Colorado's rushing attack is no better than mediocre, and that's all they have. 

Minnesota held Colorado to 0 points and a shockingly low 63 yards of total offense last week. Colorado had just 7 points the week before against Texas A&M. Colorado isn't likely to be able to score many at all here unless Arizona State turns it over and creates very short fields for them.

Arizona State's pace has been very slow this year. The Sun Devils rank 119th out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play. They have run the ball on 61.2% of their offensive plays. 

Colorado's defense is pretty good. Landman is a star at linebacker and the Buffaloes have done a pretty good job not giving up big plays. I think Arizona State will move the ball here, but it will take time and they will likely be held to some field goals.

Take the under here.

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
UCLA vs Stanford
OVER 59½ -103 Lost
$103.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well.

Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal.

UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary.

This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season.

Take the over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State
UNDER 48 -112 Lost
$112.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. 

Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front.

Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run.

A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Boise State vs Utah State
Utah State
+9½ -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Utah State Aggies season win total was set at 3 or 3.5 before the season. This team was an absolute trainwreck last year with Gary Andersen at head coach. What a difference a year makes! Blake Anderson is an excellent coach and he is a massive upgrade from Gary Andersen. Logan Bonner is a very good QB as well and he is a big upgrade from anyone who saw the field for Utah State at QB last year.

Boise State doesn't look like themselves so far this year. The Broncos are averaging 2.06 ypc which is 127th out of 130 teams in the country. Utah State's run defense is weak and I do think Boise State will run it better here, but they won't take advantage as much as some would expect. The Broncos offense overall is just 92nd in yards per play this year.

Utah State runs some great uptempo offense. The Aggies are 2nd in the nation in pace. They are averaging 6.87 yards per play (26th in the country). They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. The Aggies should get some big gainers against a Boise State defense that is down from the last few seasons.

Boise State is the big name here. That is why the line is what it is in this one. Utah State has road wins over Washington State and Air Force. This is a big game for them against the biggest name team in the conference. I expect a tight battle.

Take Utah State. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
North Texas vs Louisiana Tech
OVER 64½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. 

LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here.

North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time.

A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 25, 2021
Arkansas State vs Tulsa
OVER 62½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. 

Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already.

The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year.

This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005.

Take the over here. 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 26, 2021
Yankees vs Red Sox
Yankees
+107 at pinnacle
Won
$107
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are playing good baseball now. New York has been a streaky team this year, but they have a bullpen pitching well and an offense coming through with timely hits.

The Yankees have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. Boston is the opposite. The Red Sox are first in the majors in weighted on base average against righties, but they are 8th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has really struggled against this Yankees lineup in his career. The current Yankees lineup has an impressive .374 wOBA against Rodriguez in 184 at bats. 

Jordan Montgomery has been really solid for the Yankees this year. He isn't overpowering, but he keeps them in the game and provides quality innings. The Red Sox lineup only has a mediocre .314 wOBA against him.

Take New York at this plus money price.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Dolphins vs Raiders
Dolphins
+4 -110 at Caesars
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Miami Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing 35-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Tua was hurt in that game and Jacoby Brissett entered that game and didn't appear ready to go. 

Now, Brissett has known all week that he starts, and he should be much better. it also helps that he is going against a Raiders defense that isn't very good. Miami will be helped by Fuller being back on the field. The Raiders secondary is a clear weakness and I think Miami has the weapons to make them pay.

Derek Carr is a hot and cold quarterback. He can look great or he can look bad. The Dolphins secondary is elite. I don't think Carr will have as many open receivers as he has had in his first couple games. Both the Steelers and Ravens defense were severely shorthanded when the Raiders beat them.

In the NFL, teams who were blown out the week before often have value. Teams coming off a game with less than 10 points and who are receiving 30% of the bets or less (Miami fits this angle) 137-78 ATS (63.7% ATS covers) since 2005. The public is all over the Raiders here. 

Jon Gruden is 19-31-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more dating back to 2003. With the Raiders, he is 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.

Take Miami. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Packers vs 49ers
OVER 50 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 26, 2021
Bengals vs Steelers
UNDER 45½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under. 

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Kyle Hunter has been publicly releasing his plays for more than a decade now. In Kyle's first full year as a handicapper he burst onto the scene by finishing the year as the world’s #1 Ranked Overall Handicapper in units gained. $1,000 bettors profited more than $93,000 from Kyle’s plays that year alone.

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