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| BIG 2023! ASA runs thru July 16th: All Sports 42 games over .500 and UP $14,560 in 2023! NBA Tops long-term +$55,600 (+100 games)! NHL long-term +$38,240 (+44 games)! CFB 72-49 (+$18,180). MLB Sides 43-27 in 2023. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-B | Dec 09, 2023 UCLA vs. Villanova |
Villanova -3½ -105 at LINEPROS |
in 6h |
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#712 ASA PLAY ON Villanova -3.5 over UCLA, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This young UCLA team is making their first true road trip of the season and they are walking into a hornet’s nest across the country in Philadelphia. Villanova has lost 3 straight games, the last two by 2 points and in OT, and the Cats will be out for blood in a must win game with 2 road tilts on deck. Nova is 6-4 but they’ve played a very tough schedule (49th SOS) already facing 6 teams currently ranked in the top 90. They have very solid wins already this season over North Carolina, Maryland, Memphis, and Texas Tech. The Bruins have faced only 2 teams in the top 100, lost both, and the remainder of their games have come vs teams 250th or lower (343rd SOS for UCLA). The Bruins are one of the youngest teams in the country with only 1 upperclassman in the rotation and 2 freshman starters. That makes this a very tough spot for their first true road game vs a Villanova team that has 6 seniors in their top 8 rotation players. The Wildcats are a very solid defensive team allowing 0.97 PPP. The weakest part of their defense is defending the arc which shouldn’t hurt them here as UCLA is a poor 3 point shooting team (31%) and they take very few triples (3rd least attempts per game in the country). On the other end Nova is a top 35 offense efficiency with a 1.14 PPP and they are the #1 FT shooting team in the nation hitting 82% which will help if they have to salt this one away late. We’re grabbing Villanova at the bottom of the market so to speak off 3 losses vs an overvalued UCLA team. |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Dec 08, 2023 Warriors vs Thunder |
Thunder -2½ -110 at circa |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two teams and the Thunder have already won 2 of the three. If you bet these two teams based on their logos or history, you’ll probably be on the Warriors, but the facts of the matter are, OKC is the better team right now. Golden State stands 10-10 SU on the season and it’s a bye product of two things, poor shooting and lack of defense. The Warriors were 4th in effective FG% a year ago but currently rank 22nd this season. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins are broke right now as Thompson is shooting a career low 39.7% overall and 34.8% from deep. Wiggins has a career shooting average of 44.9% overall and 35.2% from deep but he’s hitting just 42.3% and 26.2% this season. Last year the Warriors were 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.118PPP. This season they rank 14th at 1.107PPP. Golden State has slipped defensively, also ranking 15th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.140PPP. Oklahoma City is the 4th best team in the NBA in offensive efficiency and average 119.6PPG with the 3rd best EFG% at 56.2%. The Thunder also play defense with the 7th best DEFF rating in the league and hold foes to the second lowest FG% in the league at 43.7%. The Thunder are a solid home team with a 30-21 SU record dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +5.3PPG. Golden State is 17-40 SU their last 57 road games with a negative differential of minus -3.7PPG. OKC is coming off a loss on the road to Houston and will be up for this home date with Golden State. Lay it! |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Dec 08, 2023 Pistons vs Magic |
UNDER 229 -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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ASA play on UNDER 229 Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Orlando has some injury concerns with Carter Jr, Fultz and Isaac all out and could be without Jalen Suggs who injured his ankle last time out. That shortened rotation will make it tough for the Magic to put up a ton of points in this one. Not to mention, we are betting the Magic’s Banchero can’t put together another game like he did last time out with 42-points. In breaking down the Magic’s last ten games we see higher scoring games against the Wizards twice, Hornets and Pacers who are all top 6 in pace of play. The Pistons in comparison is 13th in pace of play at 99.5 possessions per game. Detroit is also better in terms of defensive efficiency than those three teams and much worse offensively. The Pistons are averaging 109.8PPG on the year and will have a tough time scoring against this Orlando team that gives up the 7th fewest points in the NBA at 110.5PPG. Orlando is slightly better than average in the NBA in scoring at 114.1PPG and they really struggle to shoot it from Deep with the 25th worst 3PT% in the league at 34.4%. Orlando has three huge games on deck with a rematch against the Cavs who they just lost to and two games against the Celtics so they’ll be content to play a slower paced defensive game tonight. The bet here is under. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Dec 08, 2023 Illinois-Chicago vs Jacksonville State |
Illinois-Chicago +1½ -110 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwins), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the sports betting industry. Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s. After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since. They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year. ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten. ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few. They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season. ASAwins handicapping methods have evolved through years of with hard work and research being the anchor of their success. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections. They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping. That’s not where they stop, however. They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest). On top of that, they analyze each point spread (and their movements) comparing them with their own power ratings to find where an edge might be found. Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models predict the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that aren’t swayed by the human element. So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry. Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so. Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need. Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you invest in the known commodity of ASAwins! |
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